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| Subject: | GISList: Re: [AV] SUM ArcView 3.x versus ArcView 8.x |
| Date: |
06/20/2002 06:36:11 PM |
| From: |
Neil Havermale |
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I received around 15 notes on how ArcView/ArcGIS 8.x is likely being
absorbed into ESRI's 500,000 or so users. A fellow named only David, I
think hit the nail rather well concerning an overall breakout - 40:50:10.
His aggregates when combined with that teased out of what the others "felt"
help outline some suggested sub-groups. It is in the end, a normal story of
innovation and its challenges that sort out laggards and leaders.
So here is my breakout FYI.
Forty percent or 200,000 users remain exclusively ArcView 3.x. A third of
those don't like the idea that their skill and code sets have been or soon
will be abandoned. They are frustrated with paying for 3.3 upgrades that
tend to only fix known problems. They will get on board with 8.x when the
time and price is right. The other 130,000 likely are not involved and are
not heavy into GIS anyway. They will likely migrate towards GIS
services/offerings from the net. This casual GIS user represented a
majority of the "lucrative margin" adding to the general growth trend of
upwards of 15-20 percent annual growth in ArcView users in the near past.
Fifty percent have both ArcVIEW/ArcGIS 8.x and 3.2. or 250,000 users aprox.
In that group I would guess that a third have 8.x but are not effectively
using it for numerous reasons - speed, machine requirements, and skill. Its
there but more or less on the shelf: they remain 3.2 users and will likely
upgrade to 3.3+ too. The middle third are using 8.x in limited ways but
fall back to 3.2 "to get it done" when a crunch is on due to mainly skill
lag. The top third of our innovating group are moving on to 8.x because
they "have to move on" and/or they recognize its design and potential.
The top 10 percent (50,000 seems to me a lot) are fully dedicated to the 8.x
method and future. This community is dominantly working in enterprise level
efforts and web-ization of their applications. They are building the
applications the others will migrate towards.
As for MapObjects, well that seems to be a total dead end other than its
JAVA applications? It may offer insight to a licensing design for
stand-alone apps based on 8.x objects?
Conclusion - If you are looking to market into the ESRI community its likely
that due to mainly legacy skill sets and cost to innovate that roughly 70 to
80 percent of the SWAG 500,000 ArcView/ESRI users remain in daily contact
with ArcView 3.x. The top innovators or thirty percent are progressing with
8.x in productive ways. There are significant frustrations this leading
group faces. Two years from now the user communities will be reversed, say
15:85 (3.x:8.X). If growth in desktop GISing slows due web-ization of GIS
solutions generally, my WAG estimate is that marketers will find in total
600,000 or more "hands on" (mostly) 8.x+ ESRI users in two or three years.
The vast majority of the legacy data at that time will have been created or
edited at some time in AcrView 3.x.
Lastly, for new entrants to ESRI tools, GIS dealers are making the cost of
8.x near equal to the 3.x choice. Street cost for a single seat ArcView 8.1
can be as low as $850 if you hunt a bit. Entry cost does not seem to be the
cause of any lag to adopt. Possibly fear of the unknown?
FWIW
MidNight Mapper
aka neil
Summer Solstice 2002
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