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| GeoCommunity Mailing List |
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| Subject: | GISList: Re: [AV] SUM ArcView 3.x versus ArcView 8.x |
| Date: |
06/21/2002 08:16:37 AM |
| From: |
Kevin Murphy |
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Hello, listers...
Can someone tell me what the scoop is with Map Objects and version 8.x
?
Are the Map Objects VB controls included with version 8 ?
We have an ESRI demo CD and there are a bunch of VB apps, but I am not
sure if when you purchase version 8.x, is the ability to write VB code
included in the software ....
thanks
Kevin
>>> Neil Havermale <neilh@redhensystems.com> 06/20/02 07:35PM >>>
I received around 15 notes on how ArcView/ArcGIS 8.x is likely being
absorbed into ESRI's 500,000 or so users. A fellow named only David,
I
think hit the nail rather well concerning an overall breakout -
40:50:10.
His aggregates when combined with that teased out of what the others
"felt"
help outline some suggested sub-groups. It is in the end, a normal
story of
innovation and its challenges that sort out laggards and leaders.
So here is my breakout FYI.
Forty percent or 200,000 users remain exclusively ArcView 3.x. A third
of
those don't like the idea that their skill and code sets have been or
soon
will be abandoned. They are frustrated with paying for 3.3 upgrades
that
tend to only fix known problems. They will get on board with 8.x when
the
time and price is right. The other 130,000 likely are not involved and
are
not heavy into GIS anyway. They will likely migrate towards GIS
services/offerings from the net. This casual GIS user represented a
majority of the "lucrative margin" adding to the general growth trend
of
upwards of 15-20 percent annual growth in ArcView users in the near
past.
Fifty percent have both ArcVIEW/ArcGIS 8.x and 3.2. or 250,000 users
aprox.
In that group I would guess that a third have 8.x but are not
effectively
using it for numerous reasons - speed, machine requirements, and skill.
Its
there but more or less on the shelf: they remain 3.2 users and will
likely
upgrade to 3.3+ too. The middle third are using 8.x in limited ways
but
fall back to 3.2 "to get it done" when a crunch is on due to mainly
skill
lag. The top third of our innovating group are moving on to 8.x
because
they "have to move on" and/or they recognize its design and potential.
The top 10 percent (50,000 seems to me a lot) are fully dedicated to
the 8.x
method and future. This community is dominantly working in enterprise
level
efforts and web-ization of their applications. They are building the
applications the others will migrate towards.
As for MapObjects, well that seems to be a total dead end other than
its
JAVA applications? It may offer insight to a licensing design for
stand-alone apps based on 8.x objects?
Conclusion - If you are looking to market into the ESRI community its
likely
that due to mainly legacy skill sets and cost to innovate that roughly
70 to
80 percent of the SWAG 500,000 ArcView/ESRI users remain in daily
contact
with ArcView 3.x. The top innovators or thirty percent are progressing
with
8.x in productive ways. There are significant frustrations this
leading
group faces. Two years from now the user communities will be reversed,
say
15:85 (3.x:8.X). If growth in desktop GISing slows due web-ization of
GIS
solutions generally, my WAG estimate is that marketers will find in
total
600,000 or more "hands on" (mostly) 8.x+ ESRI users in two or three
years.
The vast majority of the legacy data at that time will have been
created or
edited at some time in AcrView 3.x.
Lastly, for new entrants to ESRI tools, GIS dealers are making the cost
of
8.x near equal to the 3.x choice. Street cost for a single seat
ArcView 8.1
can be as low as $850 if you hunt a bit. Entry cost does not seem to
be the
cause of any lag to adopt. Possibly fear of the unknown?
FWIW
MidNight Mapper
aka neil
Summer Solstice 2002
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