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| Subject: | RE: GISList: Ouch! What timing.... |
| Date: |
12/03/2002 03:18:38 PM |
| From: |
Dimitri Rotow |
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Hi everyone,
I didn't see this earlier but thought it important to comment on anyway.
The power of Gerrymandering arises from the technical power of modern GIS,
so I felt it important to reply when people try to wish away the arithmetic
results of GIS.
>
> As I turn out for every election and other people do not, my one vote
> becomes more proportionately more important.
Previous voting patterns and party registration are such great predictors of
election results that skewing the demographic cohorts chosen to participate
in a given contest (through geographic selection, aka "Gerrymandering") can
effectively guarantee the outcome. Because the cohort selection is based
only on those people who have voted, it really doesn't matter what the
composition is of people who don't generally vote.
There are, of course, optimizations attempted by political enterprises based
on after-the-fact alteration of selected cohorts through voter registration
drives or through get-out-the vote drives. In a well-Gerrymandered district
those will fail.
> If you intended to support a measure that I oppose and you don't
> show up to
> vote, then I get 2 votes - one that cancels yours and one in opposition to
> the measure.
Because Gerrymandering is based on geographic slicing and dicing of people
who vote, the above observation has nothing to do with the arithmetic power
of Gerrymandering. We're not talking about the general problem of people
not voting in elections. We're talking about the problem of using
geographic data to clump people so among those that do vote artificial
majorities can be constructed.
> Gerrymandering can only be successful if it is ignored. When
That's a little like saying gravity can only be successful if it is ignored.
Look, 9 is always a larger number than 1. If you divide a geography for
Gerrymandering it doesn't matter whether it is "ignored." The arithmetic
still works out so the incumbent wins all the time.
> times are good,
> not much changes. When times are hard, issues rise in importance and
> representatives change. Kind of like evolution - change or die.
>
> If you think you can't make a difference, you won't.
> I think I can make a difference and I do.
Well, that's a pleasantly upbeat way of thinking about the world and I
certainly agree that there are many ways one determined person can make a
difference in the political process. Unfortunately, if that one person is in
a proscribed minority in a Gerrymandered district, voting is not one of
them. This is an elementary consequence of grade school arithmetic that no
amount of wishful thinking will alter.
If you disagree, consider a thought experiment: Let's say you are a
Republican and you live in Barney Frank's district in Massacusetts. No
matter how much you get up in the morning, look yourself in the mirror and
tell yourself that your vote against Barney will make a difference, it
won't. You've been Gerrymandered out of being able to make a difference.
If you are a Democrat, the same thing happens if you live in Joe Barton's
district in Texas: the simple arithmetic of the contest means that your vote
doesn't make a difference, either.
Regards to all,
Dimitri
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