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by Robert Crossley Trinity Software www.trinitysoftware.com.au A while ago, Robert Crossley asked for some ideas on a paper for the future of GIS. A number of people sent suggestions, and based on the replies he put together this paper and presented it to the Far North Queensland GIS Users Group (FUNGUS). Robert has generously given us permission to share his paper with you ... enjoy! Some words from the author "The views expressed were a result of a small amount of thought, some alcohol and a rather blissful comtemplative period spent on an island in the middle of the Great Barrier Reef. I fully accept its limitations, and please remember that it was a paper prepared for a talk to be presented first up after the conference dinner, and was not to be published. Disagree by all means, but don't take it too seriously." FUTURE OF GIS Introduction For a start, lets stop talking about GIS. I believe that what we perceive to be GIS now will only be a small part of the technology we use. The software we will be using will have a much broader application base than the systems we sit in front of each day. A better term would be spatially enabled software, or spatial software for short. So, how does one predict the future? If I really knew I wouldn't be here, I'd be betting on horses. I was once exposed to methods that were supposed to enhance your capabilities. About 5 years ago in another life, I worked for a multinational consultancy. We spent one day of our own time doing a visioning exercise to see where the company was going. In one exercise we drew pictures of where we thought we would be in 10 years time. Quite a few of us drew barely recognisable pictures of us working away on laptops under palm trees, connected to the office by mobile communications. About a year ago, I tried it, and frankly it's quite uncomfortable. Sand in the keyboard and being surrounded by semi-naked backpackers were quite distracting. I wrote the first draft of these notes sitting on a rock ledge meters from a coral reef. I used a notepad (the old fashioned type) and a pen. I then typed it into my computer when I got back to the office. Why? During the previous weekend my mobile phone got wet when out fishing and it no longer works. I wasn't going to risk my laptop in a sea kayak. At this point you may well ask what has this got to do with GIS products, but I just wanted to point out that having the technology will not automatically change the way that people do things. Visions of the brave new electronic world sometimes forget this, and whatever the technologists envisage may not happen because of people factors. After the Gold Rush It is only recently that I have heard industry leaders talking about making software/ hardware so that it assists people do their work, rather than making people think like computers. It is fortunate because this was the reason that I got into computers 14 years ago. I was involved with using expert systems for providing land management advice. Then about 12 years ago, I wanted to use spatial information as part of the background data, so I looked at GIS. I started using it because it was frustrating to have to ask someone else to do something that they did not understand, just because they had spent the last year of their life learning the obscure commands to do so. Things have changed somewhat since then, and they will continue to change. To predict these changes we need to understand the factors that have influenced these changes and understand what future changes are in store. I'm sure that I have read a calendar quote along the lines "Today is yesterday's future". So what are the factors that have allowed GIS to become mainstream? What has changed to allow the systems we use today evolve from those old systems. Personally, I don't miss the weeks of digitising using cryptic commands described in a very large book - so that we could display poor quality maps on the screen, print even worse maps, and perform incredibly complex algorithms that had no bearing on the real-world decision process. However, you would expect that any trends that are driving the technology in the last few years would continue to do so for at least a short while. The things that have driven change over the past few years could be broadly categorised into the following list: 1. The Software Bank 2. Computing power 3. Peripherals (including the internet) 4. The data bank 5. Standards 6. Peoples attitudes 7. Government attitudes Software Bank Without doubt, the largest impact on the software we use today has been due to the accumulation of software. Almost no software today is ever built in isolation. We use bits of other programs or entire other programs written by others to make our software work. Often applications are simply connecting 3 or 4 modules, each of which that do what they were designed to do a lot better than if we were to sit down and try to repeat the process. Even Microsoft use this approach and it is no fluke that the spell checker inside of word looks like the one inside of other packages. This ease of development has allowed a niche to develop where small firms can develop software for specific purposes - applications that are specific to one industry or even one client's job. Typical of these products on the spatial front is a product that we are using - MapInfo's MapX object. MapX is the heart of the mapping functionality in MapInfo which can be embedded into any application. This product has the new features enabled into it before they are released into the main flagship product MapInfo Professional. ESRI has an equivalent product, but some third party vendors have the equivalent that works with both formats. These same types of objects are used to create the web server technology used for publishing maps to the web. The ease that software can be developed using these modules or objects means that software can be developed more quickly, and therefore software can be customised more readily to do specific tasks. It is only recently that we have started to see these types of products appear on the market. The directional software fitted to many cars now that uses GPS and GIS technology to tell a driver how to get to a particular location are deri vatives of the spatial industry, but the users have no idea that they are using a GIS. I think that these types of applications will become more the norm. These sorts of applications are certainly a large part of our business, and I believe will continue to be. The increased number of users and the internet has meant that more and more people now have access to information, so centralised server database technologies are becoming increasingly popular again. Spatial technology has gone right along with it as mainstream databases like Oracle embedding spatial technology as part of the system. Oracle version 8 now has a field type that stores spatial information about the database record similar to a GIS, and allows spatial enquires directly from within Oracle. Delivery of this information over the web is now relatively commonplace. The speed of delivery of maps is currently a hindrance as is the base data to make these systems operate. The entry into the market of these large database companies is a signal that spatial technology has finally got out of the cartography section and into the IT section. It will be interesting to see the influence that Microsoft has on the industry now that it too is involved. Raw Computing Power I do not need to tell anyone how quickly computers are increasing in speed. You only have to go shopping six months after you bought your last computer and you know how quick it went out of date. Most of the applications that previously were only released on mainframe or workstations are now released on PC's. I have as much hard disk space (and probably memory and chip speed) on my laptop as the mainframe that was running the centralised system for the State when I started in computing. But marveling about miniaturization and speed of todays computing is like imagining what today's cars would be like back in the early 1900's. It is really an extrapolation of already existing technology. If you really want a head-spin, read something about nanotechnology, where they talk about building computers by manipulating atoms. This technology could deliver unheard of computing power and storage spaces in an object the size of a speck of dust. Reproduction of this technology could be done at no cost because it replicates itself. It is very scary stuff, and makes genetic engineering seem clumsy because they could essentially create a new life form from atoms and not even be restricted to the constraints of gene structures. They have already achieved some aspects of this technology, and suggest that a computer based on it may be achieved in our lifetime. The impact of this has simply been that individuals now have the resources to do what only institutions or large corporations could do previously. More users mean a faster rate of change and more demand for that change. It also has meant that the development cycle for software has reduced and more people can do it. Peripherals (including the internet) When I talk about the peripherals, I mean the technology that allows us to communicate with our computer and others. Until we can communicate telepathically, we need to be able to communicate with the computer. How many people remember when you had to type in commands to make a program work (some GIS still require you to do this)? How about punch cards (most GIS have moved on from this)? Voice recognition software is now so commonplace that it is easy to imagine that we will be using voice commands more. It is touted as being the next Operating System, but it is hard to imagine how that would work in an office situation. It would like being in a library where everyone read aloud. I think it may just make that palm tree an option again. GPS is the peripheral likely to have the largest impact on the spatial systems, because it is the gadget that says where it is on the earth (a handy pice of data for a spatial system). There are applications around that allow users to take notes in the field and the location is automatically associated with that note. Harvesters, mine equipment and fertiliser applicators are all currently being tracked using GPS and use spatial technology to exert some form of control over its operation. Car GPS allow the on-board computers to know where they are and this allows them to work out how to get somewhere else. I heard recently that the US will be putting GPS chips in mobile phones. With the resulting price drop of the chips, the potential applications of this technology will increase to a new level. It is easy to imagine that assets will no longer need to be managed, but will simply tell a central computer where they are and what needs to be done. I've always thought that animal and people management will be far simpler if they were to have embedded tracking devices - for their own ogg of course. Anyone who remembers a movie called Logan's Run should at this point be squirming in their seats. Probably the peripheral to have the largest influence on computing in recent times is the Internet. While most people do not usual consider it to be a peripheral, it is really no more than a large network that we all can join easily. It also is based on a standard set of protocols so that no matter what software you use; you can use the program and data that I want to let you. The number of users is potentially much greater. Delivery over the web is really the new frontier. The Internet's impact has been great because it has widened out the potential users of any software we develop, allowed us to get help more quickly than ever before, and provided a means of marketing that even the smallest company can participate in the world-wide marketplace. When I started writing these notes, I put out a request to the MapInfo list for any suggestions. This list is read by more than 1000 people last time I checked. I had several good suggestions within a couple of hours from around the world, and quite a few requests for copies of this paper. When I did get around to publishing it, there were four requests to publish it on other web sites within 24 hours. I have had a similar response when I have asked for an answer to a particular problem on the MapInfo-List. There is always someone working on it somewhere, and is connected to the list (it's a bit like the british empire in the early 1900's - the sun never sets on it). My current obscure working hours means that I need help in the European/ US office hours, and the internet can do that at a fraction of the cost that such a service would have been a few years ago. The global communication that is possible with the Internet has also changed the way that business can be done. Software sales and distribution over the web allows small firms to build specialist software. This change in the way that software can be marketed has precipitated changes in the structure of businesses. The ability to market small, specific applications has simply meant that these niche applications can be developed commercially because it is possible to market to a wider number of users for next to no cost. In todays market, someone can broadcast that they have a problem in the morning, a person somewhere else in the world can write a program to fix the problem in the afternoon, and it can be marketed worldwide that night. It does not have to be the world's best software to be successful, provided it fixes the problem very quickly. Companies that are large enough to be able to market ideas in the pre-internet world would still be in the phase of a technician tying to convince his boss that something should be done, and it would be months of business plans before any software was likely to be produced. Their role will be build versatile, multi-purpose software like the tools that are used to develop specific applications (eg. embedded mapping objects, charts, spell checkers etc.). This large network called the Internet has already had large impacts on users of spatial information. Organisations are now looking at the internet technology to serve its users as the same system can be used to deliver information to its own members via an intranet/ internet and the public via the internet. Using the centralised server approach reduces the cost of interface software and operational issues. Perhaps the next step after the Internet is suggested by a project by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology called oxygen. This describes a system of small voice activated "computers" that are also an Internet connection, mobile phone, radio and television. It would no doubt include a GPS equivalent, if the developers become spatially aware. It would be supplemented by a larger system that exists in the environment around the users. The technology sounds great, but ultimately will it work in a workplace because of issues like everyone needing a cone of silence to stop annoying their neighbours. More likely it the technology behind it will be spotted by an outsider and used for something completely different. The Data Bank Eight years ago, I can remember demonstrating an expert system that could predict the amount of available residential land for an area based on up to 14 different factors. I had the system operation for an area the size of England. When I was asked about using it commercially, I had to reply that the information that it was based was only available to governmental users. The commercial price of that data would prevent its use. We could not implement any system that was based on anything less than continental scale because the detailed data was either not available or restricted. The adage then was that any GIS project was split roughly 95% data collation, 5% analysis. This has changed significantly, with massive datasets becoming more available as public custodians relent to pressure to release the data, or commercial vendors being able to sell quantities to reduce prices. Recently in my state of Queensland, the price of cadastral data dropped by 95%. You now can buy every parcel in the State for a mere $87,000. Much less if you just want to produce printed maps. North Queensland could be bought for about $8000. Even less if you talk to Wal Mayer from ERSIS today. This data will allow people to develop business using a substantial database for the first time. Even this low price does not match the price in Victoria, where you can buy a per seat license for as low as $2000 for the whole state. Many datasets are being collated by public organisations and are being made available freely. The result? We will see more products in the future where the data is part of the product. The car or boat navigation systems and the business address finder are a couple of example. I have some others, but I'm not telling you yet. Standards We have seen the impact that open standards can have on the speed of development, even if different groups want different flavours, and the standards become as loose as those used for the internet. Standards for data exchange or even publishing the formats that the data is stored can greatly speeds the rate that product can be developed because it opens up a greater market to any one product. I don't think that any product will survive if it doesn't support import/ export functions to and from its major competitors. There are already products available that can read MapInfo, ArcView and AutoCad simultaneously. It doesn't look like SDTS will become the standard base for all systems. I believe there will be a time that this sort of functionality will be incorporated into the mainstream GIS as well. If Microsoft continue to be involved, there will no doubt be a new standard. The biggest potential impact from standards will be the new vector based standard called VML. The largest impediment to delivering mapping over the Internet is that the data transfer to the user is via a graphical image of the map. This is fine when the speed of transfer is simply down the cable connecting the computer to its screen, as this happens so fast that you don't really even think that you are just interacting with a picture. However, when the image is being sent down the wire, the transfer rate is slow. The answer has been to make map interfaces on the web about the size of a matchbox. VML allows data to be transferred through the Internet (or even over a Intranet) as vectors. These vectors are then converted to an image by the local machine at a much faster rate. The impact of this standard will only be felt when internet browsers are capable of using this language and internet web server technology makes this feature its standard transfer protocol, but you can almost hear the programmers scurrying around doing this as we speak. There is a web site called VML Source that will be launched "later this "northern" summer. Attitudes Another big impact on the products we see now been caused by the change in attitudes of software developers. Software developers and GIS professionals ignore users at their own peril. Users will not tolerate being treated like fools for so long. Hands up how many people remember having a word processing group that you had to hand your typing into, have it filed into a jobs list and then wait for it to be done? Now hands up who do have a word processing group in their organisation, and do their own typing - or don't even have a word processing group in their organisation? Perhaps you have a good word processing operator who checks the integrity of the document, tidies it up a bit etc. Anyone who cannot see the parallels with the GIS groups should give up their medication before it does any permanent damage. In the GIS industry, MapInfo was a product that recognised this a long time ago. When I started in GIS, I deliberately chose a product that worked on affordable platforms (actually I had little choice), and even the DOS version was simpler to use than its competitors. At the time, it was scoffed at by "serious" GIS users, who said it couldn't do everything that their system could. The difference was that I could do what I wanted to do at an affordable price and I did not have to ask the GIS section to do it for me. Now everyone talks of empowering the users as though it was always the case, but it is a relatively recent phenomenon. The people factor is an important factor in the adoption of new technology and thus what products become mainstream. No matter how great a gadget is, it won't become mainstream unless it fills a specific requirement or wish. Being innovative is not always profitable, as the great new gadget may be released before the people know they want it. The first company goes bust trying to market it, and then the unimaginative masses following along behind are the ones that make a success of it. Look at what has happened with satellite phones. Conclusions There will be a place for the traditional GIS and GIS professionals. They will be needed to bring the spatial data together, produce maps (yes there will still be a need for printed material for a long time yet), do enquiries that aren't quite standard, do quality assurance. Spatial software will be operated by fewer GIS specialists, and more by people who want to use the system for their work rather than the GIS being the focus of their work. This isn't the future, this is a current trend. GIS specialists that have no other skills will need to evolve into either cartographers or IT specialists who have an understanding of how the spatial data fits into the overall information management. I have been saying for some years now that the very existence of an organisation of GIS users such as FUNGIS started out being will make as much sense as an organisation of word processor operators. Now I am hearing the same thing from other people as well. Fortunately FUNGIS has been evolving as well and its role as a lobby group on issues such as data availability and exchange will keep its relevance. More commonplace than GIS will be spatially enabled products. These products will use spatial technology to interact with databases created and maintained by using the more traditional GIS. We already see spatial data in our phone books and car systems, but it will increasingly be incorporated into other products. For example, I can imagine a small credit card that has a GPS, spatial software and the street network in its 2 terabytes of flash RAM, and its sole purpose in life is to give you a continuous readout of where the closest McDonalds is - Worldwide. And you get one free with every purchase of 2 McHappy meals. Who am I to say which course our future will take? If you melded concepts from Frank Herbert's Chapterhouse Dune and Tolstoy's War and Peace - something I'm sure is not done everyday - you would end up with the following view. There is an infinite number of paths our future could take from this point in time, and certain powerful figures will be trying to direct the future along a path they see or desire. However, unless there is a large worm using some mind altering substance to manipulate the future along one of those paths, the future could be more influenced by small unpredictable events that we have no way of foreseeing. The future of spatial products may be largely determined by the large corporations that are currently involved and follow the path that they have mapped out. Then again, maybe some 14 year old kid may connect his dad's GPS to some data he got at school and the latest Doom or Tomb Raiders development kit and come up with something that redefines the whole spatial industry. Robert Crossley Trinity Software 10 Trinity Street Parramatta Park CAIRNS 4870 AUSTRALIA Phone: 61-7-40314877 Fax: 61-7-40314810 email: Robert_Crossley@trinitysoftware.com.au web: www.trinitysoftware.com.au |
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